BRITAIN’S WINTERS ARE MILDER - DID GLOBAL WARMING BEGIN EARLIER THAN THOUGHT? | HOLLYANN

There has always been global warming and cooling. Climates are never specific; they don’t have exact temperatures. The definition of climate is weather conditions in an area in general or over a long period. So, climate change is when the weather systems change so sporadically that there is a new climate overall. For example, from tropical to arid, causing animals to adapt overtime to the new surroundings created. At first climate change is gradual but it rapidly progresses giving less time for organisms to adapt. I have gathered evidence suggesting that Britain’s climate has changed more than just by hotter summers or more sporadic weather and earlier than scientists believe. I have compared the coldest winters, major weather events and temperature averages in the 1800s to the present day.

Hypothesis: Between 1820-2020, there was a gradual but ever quickening change in climate, which I believe was first caused in 1760 (the beginning of the industrial revolution) but didn’t show noticeable changes until 1820. This contradicts beliefs that it didn’t begin until the late 1800s. “Scientists generally regard the later part of the 19th century as the point at which human activity started influencing the climate.”- Carbon Brief.

The industrial revolution and its impact on the weather

The Industrial Revolution was the transition to new manufacturing processes- this involved the burning of greenhouse gases in Britain, in the period from about 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840. Everywhere in Britain thick fog covered towns. This was the main impact on weather conditions. Another impact was that heat from factory chimneys melted snow on rooftops and released carbon emissions. Perhaps this is the reason why global warming began earlier than we think.

How cold were the coldest winters pre global warming and during global warming?

I have taken the coldest winter from the first 20 years of the 1800s (what I think is the time of pre global warming) so I can compare it with the coldest winter from the 2000s; “The Big Freeze of 2010.” This is to show how much temperatures have changed.

In January 1814 the average temperature was recorded as -2.9.

In January 2010 the average temperature was recorded as 1.5.

We can clearly see that between 1800-2020 there has been a clear change to our average temperatures. What we deem a severe, harsh winter would have been deemed a mild winter in the 1800s

What were the typical winters like between 1800-1820 and 2000-2020?

By comparing snowfall averages we can see how much the climate has really changed. Snowfall between 1800-1820 typically began as early as October continuing into March the following year. In comparison, the years between 2000-2020 many years came without snow at all or in years that did bring snow it arrived in February, rarely settling. In 1800-1820 virtually every year brought snow, the river Thames froze, people skated on lakes. In modern day winters, we see social media excitement in the hopes that snow will fall, but we are often left disappointed. The last time the Thames froze over was in 1963, the last frost fair being in 1814 and there hasn’t been a white Christmas for over a decade. Yes, snowfalls in the UK can still be heavy, but they are far less widespread and not guaranteed as they were 200 years ago.

Was 1820 the start of Global Warming?

As highlighted, Britain’s climate is different from 200 years ago, but evidence suggests the climate in Britain truly took a turn when almost everything was industrialised in 1820. After the last freezing of the Thames in 1814 winters became milder- In 1822 the winter was “Notably mild”, 1833 “One of the warmest winters” 1842 and 1843 “For two years running… remarkably mild”- Pascal Bonefant. These conditions are normally unheard of. By 1895 snow no longer fell every year and by 1970 there was hardly any snow at all “1970-76: Little snow for 6 winters!”- Metcheck.

Factors that influence UK winters

The North Atlantic Oscillation: This is the year to year change in the direction of winds. If there are westerly winds from the Atlantic, the winter would typically bring mild conditions with increased rainfall.

Polar vortex: This is often used to headline articles on winter weather but the true meaning is that it’s a circulation of winds above the earth. A weaker polar vortex would result in a harsh winter.

Arctic sea ice: This impact is still being researched but ultimately it causes a warm winter and it also causes a cold winter so it is difficult to determine.

Daily weather: Winter isn’t just determined by these scientific factors but also daily weather- for example: It depends on the precipitation, if it had rained and then snowed it is less likely the snow would settle but had it been freezing rain, the outcome would be the opposite.

Conclusion

There is evidence to suggest that Britain’s winters have been milder over the past 200 years and that Global Warming began as early as 1820. The Industrial Revolution, from its beginnings in 1760, is a possible cause of this.